Verdict: Home win
Best odds: 3/2
Bookmaker: Luckster
Two Premier League sides aiming for a top-four finish face off at Villa Park on Saturday evening, as Aston Villa welcome Chelsea.
Unai Emery’s men will be out for revenge against the West Londoners, having fallen to a 3-0 defeat in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge back in December.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa remain without a win in their last five Premier League games, drawing four of them—including Wednesday’s 2-2 stalemate against leaders Liverpool. After the match, Unai Emery admitted a draw was a fair outcome in a competitive contest.
Villa led at halftime after Youri Tielemans and Ollie Watkins overturned Mohamed Salah’s opener, but in an end-to-end encounter with several chances, Liverpool salvaged a point through Trent Alexander-Arnold’s deflected strike.
Despite winning just six of their last 21 league matches (D9 L6), Villa sit ninth and remain in the race for Champions League football, trailing fourth-placed Manchester City by five points and Bournemouth and Chelsea—fifth and sixth, respectively—by four.
No team has drawn more home games this season than Villa (seven), but they will still be glad to return to Villa Park, where they have lost just once in their last 22 Premier League outings—a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal in August.
However, their recent record against London clubs is mixed, with only four wins in their last 15 league meetings (D6 L5), following a prior run of 10 straight victories over capital-based sides between April 2023 and February 2024. Additionally, Villa have won just two of their last 11 home league games against Chelsea, with 1-0 and 2-1 victories in March 2014 and May 2021, respectively.
Team News
Aston Villa will be without Pau Torres (ankle), Amadou Onana (thigh), Boubacar Kamara (muscle), and Ross Barkley (calf) due to injury, while Ezri Konsa and Leon Bailey (both unspecified) remain doubtful and will be assessed before kickoff.
Chelsea loanee Axel Disasi is ineligible to face his parent club, leaving Villa’s defense stretched. If Konsa is unavailable, Unai Emery may turn to Lamare Bogarde to partner Tyrone Mings at center-back.
Marcus Rashford is still searching for his first Villa goal since joining on loan from Manchester United, but with four goals in eight home Premier League appearances against Chelsea, he could retain his spot on the left. Morgan Rogers, Marco Asensio, and Ollie Watkins are also in contention to lead the attack.
Chelsea
After an impressive 12-game unbeaten streak (W9 D3) from November 3 to December 22, Chelsea’s form has dipped, with just three wins in their last 10 matches across all competitions, including three defeats in their last four.
The West Londoners have struggled against Brighton & Hove Albion, suffering consecutive away losses to the Seagulls—first a 2-1 defeat in the FA Cup fourth round, followed by a 3-0 league loss last Friday.
In their latest defeat, Chelsea failed to register a single shot on target for the first time in a Premier League match since September 2021. Enzo Maresca, who described the performance as “the worst” under his tenure, has seen his side slip to sixth place, though they remain just one point off the top four.
Maresca will expect a strong reaction on Saturday and will hope for an improvement in Chelsea’s away form, as they have failed to win any of their last six road games (D2 L4) and have managed only two goals in their last five Premier League away fixtures (D2 L3).
However, Chelsea can take confidence from their strong record at Villa Park, where their 13 away league wins are surpassed only by their tallies at Tottenham (16) and Southampton (15). They can also draw motivation from their dominant three-goal victory over Villa earlier this season.
Team News
Chelsea will be without Noni Madueke, Nicolas Jackson, Wesley Fofana, Omari Kellyman (all hamstring), Romeo Lavia (muscle), Marc Guiu (groin), and Benoit Badiashile (thigh), while Mykhaylo Mudryk is suspended.
Reece James and Tosin Adarabioyo are pushing for returns in defence, which could see Malo Gusto and Trevoh Chalobah drop to the bench. Meanwhile, Jadon Sancho is set to replace the injured Madueke on the left flank, allowing Pedro Neto to switch to the right.
Cole Palmer has gone five matches without a goal or assist, with his last assist coming in Chelsea’s win over Villa on December 1. Despite this dip in form, he is expected to continue in a central attacking role alongside Christopher Nkunku, with both potentially rotating in a ‘false nine’ setup.
Conclusion
Chelsea cruised past Aston Villa in December, but this encounter is likely to be a much tighter affair, with both sides struggling to secure wins in recent weeks despite their top-four ambitions.
Villa have been far more comfortable at home this season, and given Chelsea’s defensive vulnerabilities and lack of cutting edge in attack, Emery’s men are well-positioned to claim all three points this time around.
Verdict: Home win
Best odds: 3/2
Bookmaker: Luckster
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