Betting baseball on a day-to-day basis is a labor of love for those who do it. Not only do you have to stay up-to-date on the latest injuries and usage patterns, but you have to be OK with the variance that comes in a sport that is inherently one of failure.
I’ll be here to help you navigate that journey this year, but I understand if the daily cadence isn’t your thing. Regardless of how you plan to gamble on baseball this season, a sharp futures bet is always good to have in your pocket — it gives you a rooting interest for the entire year without the need to sweat every pinch-hitter decision or change of roles in a fickle bullpen.
With that in mind, my first click in the futures market has been made, and I’d be happy to drive the bandwagon if you want to join!
MLB Futures Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks
Even if you have yet to embrace the daily cadence of MLB news consumption, you’re likely aware that the Los Angeles Dodgers are projected to be an absolute wagon. Not only do they have three hitters that would be the top option in most offenses, but they also made noise this offseason by bolstering an already strong pitching staff.
They own the best roster in the sport. Heck, they might own the best roster in the history of team sports. Books have set their win total at 104-105 and are offering odds on them to break the single-season record for victories (the 2001 Mariners hold that mark with 116). I’m not here to argue any of that — I’m simply here to draft off of their optimism and embrace a discount I believe has come as a result.
Due to the Dodgers’ historic expectations, the teams standing in their way are assigned low ceilings. Every team in baseball plays each of its divisional opponents 13 times (8% of their regular season schedule).
If we use a 105-win projection as gospel, that would mean each divisional opponent is starting the season with 8-9 losses to Los Angeles alone (105 wins means they project to win 64.8% of their games and 64.8% of 13 games is 8.4 wins, thus leaving the opposition with 8.4 losses).
I’m buying.
Even if that proves to be accurate (I spoke about the variance of this sport earlier — the 98-win Dodgers had a stretch early last season in which they lost seven of nine games), we still have plenty of time to recover when backing a talented Arizona Diamondbacks team, especially when you consider those games could easily be offset by their 13 matchups with the Colorado Rockies (among the favorites to finish with the worst record in the sport).
On the field, the D-Backs are a pretty easy sell. Last season, they owned the fourth-lowest strand rate in the league, a weakness that I think has a better chance of becoming a strength than it does repeat in 2025.
Arizona has 23-year-old Justin Martínez at the backend of its bullpen this season, and his 2.48 ERA a season ago (64 appearances) was good to see. If you remove two outings in which he pitched on back-to-back days against the same opponent, his ERA falls to 1.89, a 23.8% improvement by simply removing two tough spots.
A.J. Puk (sixth overall pick in 2016) also profiles as a plus piece among the relievers in the desert. The southpaw has seen his expected ERA (xERA) improve in three straight seasons; after joining this team last July, he coughed up a run in just two of 30 outings.
There are obviously more pieces in this pen, but given the quality of depth that this rotation has access to after signing Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $120 million deal in December, I’m projecting fewer innings and thus a greater impact for these two plus options.
Regarding Burnes, skeptics point to his declining strikeout rate. Those concerns are warranted — this is a high-K era, making a backward trending rate alarming at first glance. The reason I’m not panicking, however, is that he is more of a pitcher than a thrower.
Sure, his ability to miss bats is moving in the wrong direction, but his experience has allowed him to adjust and that keeps my projection optimistic – his hard hit rate allowed has improved in consecutive seasons.
At the end of the day, Burnes is one of only three pitchers (as well as Logan Webb and Aaron Nola) who has reached 190 innings in each of the past three seasons, giving this rotation a reliable ace they can feel comfortable rolling out there every fifth day. I like his ability to be a top-15 pitcher this season, and with the depth behind him, that’s really all we need to have a good path to cashing this bet.
Rest of the Diamondbacks’ Rotation:
- Zac Gallen: Lowest average against among SPs since 2022
- Merrill Kelly: Four-pitch pitcher exploring who uses versatility to his advantage
- Brandon Pfaadt: GB% rose spiked last year, xERA 19.7% lower than his ERA
- Eduardo Rodríguez: Lefties are hitting .191 against him over the past two seasons (limited innings, but if this team is relying heavily on him, this bet is already lost)
Corbin Burnes.
That’s it. That’s the tweet. pic.twitter.com/BWFYPPWZg3
— PHNX Diamondbacks (@PHNX_Dbacks) February 12, 2025
With Burnes added to this rotation and my belief in the back end of this bullpen, I like Arizona to continue a trend that has developed under Torey Lovullo in recent years.
Diamondbacks’ Win% Following a Loss:
- 2021: 28.3% (worst in the league)
- 2022: 46.6%
- 2023: 48.8%
- 2024: 56.2%
On the hitting side of things, there’s even more to like. Arizona was the only team to rank inside the top five in lowest strikeout rate and highest isolated power (ISO = slugging percentage – batting average), a unique blend of skills that elevates the offensive floor above most in this three-true-outcomes era.
As far as the bats go, Corbin Carroll is an absolute game-wrecker. That’s a statement at this point, not an opinion.
Over the past two seasons, the leadoff hitter paces baseball in runs scored, checks in at second in stolen bases, and has hit more homers than George Springer or Adley Rutschman. He’s a uniquely gifted player who saved last season after a slow start with a blistering August (1.042 OPS with more RBIs than strikeouts), showcasing just how high his ceiling is.
Arizona’s lineup depth allows it to lock in Carroll into the top third of its order, fueling an analytically friendly approach. Ketel Marte is coming off of the second-best OPS season of his career while Josh Naylor comes over from Cleveland having slugged over .450 in three straight seasons and improving his eye in a significant way in 2024 (his chase rate improved from 41.6% to 32.1%).
The Jake McCarthy/Lourdes Gurriel Jr. tandem in the middle of the order has me interested when it comes to the depth of quality at-bats, no matter who is on the bump. Lefty McCarthy saw his OPS against RHP jump by 20.1% last season while the right-handed Gurriel posted a .331/.370/.515 slash in the platoon advantage during his second season with the ‘Backs.
Running through this order without coughing up a scoring opportunity once is going to be difficult, and with the support of a strong pitching staff, a single timely hit on a per-game basis figures to keep this team competitive even if not clicking on all cylinders — nevermind the upside for a winning streak to occur if/when the bats heat up.
We are talking about a team that won 89 games a season ago with a low strand rate and two slumps before June (a 5-11 stretch that was followed by five straight losses less than a month later). Arizona played at a near 100-win pace after the All-Star break. While I think that is a bit optimistic, there’s no reason that, with a deeper roster, they can’t carry that pace for an extended period and help us cash both of these futures.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks over 86.5 wins (+100, FanDuel)
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks to win 90+ games (+172, FanDuel)
English