Tesla revealed a lot about all of their existing and planned artificial intelligence related products and services in the Q1 2024 earnings call.
Elon talked about offering FSD/robotaxi as a hybrid Airbnb and Uber model. Tesla will operating the fleet and the network. The enduser will be able to control their participation in the robotaxi network. There had been some people talking about Tesla only operating its own fleet of robotaxi but this is not the case.
Tesla will create an Amazon Web services (AWS) like distributed inference service. If Tesla has 100 million cars eventually out in the world, then this would be a 100 Gigawatt of distributed compute. If Tesla could make $300/year could made per car then this would be $3 billion per year.
Tesla will have its Optimus Teslabots working in their own factories by the end of this year (2024). Teslabot could be sold externally by the end of 2025.
Tesla has been testing FSD (full self driving) 12.4 and 12.5 for 3-6 months and know how good the FSD is. Tesla can forecast fairly accurately the future performance of FSD based upon the scaling of data and compute.
Tesla 12.4 and 12.5 are each total retraining of the neural network.
FSD version 12.X is going to China.
There has been over 50% usage of FSD of potential Tesla FSD vehicles (Over 900k of 1.8 million). IF half of those who try it (and not including those who purchased) then this could be an increase of 200,000 to 300,000 subscriptions in the USA and would be 300,000 to 500,000 in China if China adopts at comparables levels to the USA.
Tesla can improve the FSD performance by
1. increasing model size
2. training compute times
3. more data and
4. better architectures
Tesla is in discussions with one other major automaker about licensing FSD. Elon thinks FSD will have at least one license this year. It will take three years for any new automaker to deploy Tesla licensed hardware and software in a new vehicle.
Tesla has 35,000 Nvidia H100s at the end of March and will have over 85,000 by the end of 2024. This is 140 Exaflops at the end of March and would be 340 Exaflops at the end of the year.
The FSD milestones mentioned align with what Nextbigfuture has been predicting for over a month.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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